Reuters negative interest rates troubling investors urged the central bank twice-www.seseou.com

Reuters: negative interest rates are unsettling, investors urge the central bank to think twice about Reuters London February 11th – more and more central banks taking negative interest rates policy may cause irreparable harm to the financial sector, which worries people to find more radical alternative measures. In recent weeks, bank bonds and stock markets have been frustrated, which has led many investors to think that negative interest rates are now part of the problem, not a solution to the problem. Negative interest rates are actually taxing banks, intent on increasing lending. Radical ideas suggest other ways, such as layering interest rates, buying bank bonds and stocks, and even taxing cash. The Central Bank of Japan recently joined the central bank with negative interest rates, and the Swedish central bank further lowered negative interest rates on Thursday, while the market speculated that the European Central Bank (ECB) would reduce the current deposit rate of 0.3% by 10 or 20 basis points next month. As some economists talk about the possibility of a global recession, even the Federal Reserve (FED), which has just raised interest rates for the first time in 10 years last December, is also looking at the prospect of negative interest rates. "The pressure on the banking sector is not a coincidence after the BoJ decided to cut interest rates to negative interest rates," said Richard McGuire, director of Rabobank interest rate strategy. "This is overreaction." This week’s decline has attracted much attention in the long run of negative interest rates. European bank shares have fallen to several years low, while the subprime (sub) bank debt insurance costs have risen by more than 80%ITEFS5Y= this year. Negative interest rates are actually equivalent to collecting fees from the central bank’s funds, but these costs are hard to pass on, because customers can take their money from the account and leave a hole in the balance sheet of the bank. Central banks can mitigate these blows by limiting the range of negative interest rates. For example, the Bank of Japan is using different levels of interest rates, the European Central Bank also discussed similar initiatives. However, it is unlikely that the ECB will implement this approach. This kind of tinkering may allow the original hope to improve the effect of weakening the economy, but because of the negative interest rate banks are seeking offbeat way behind the head. European central bank policymakers have discussed bank and corporate bonds, or riskier asset-backed securities (ABS), into their 1 trillion and 500 billion euro ($1 trillion and 700 billion) bond buying program. And Prete, chief economist at the European Central Bank, even mentioned that stocks or gold are also theoretical options. Most of these measures are not easy to implement, because the ECB needs to be fully implemented in the 19 Member States, but it is not entirely impossible. One or two years ago, when people talked about buying government bonds and negative interest rates, they actually treated them as something very different. "There’s no way to exclude anything," says Management Ducrozet, European economist at Pictet Wealth Frederik. And there are precedents. On Asia at the end of the 1990s

路透:负利率令人不安 投资者力劝央行三思   路透伦敦2月11日 – 越来越多的央行采取负利率政策,可能给金融业造成无法弥补的伤害,这种担忧促使人们寻找更加激进的替代措施。   最近几周银行债券与股市受挫,让许多投资者觉得负利率现在成了问题的一部分,而不是解决问题的手段。负利率实际上是对银行征税,意图促使其增加放贷。   想法激进的人建议采取其它手段,比如分层利率、购买银行债券与股票,甚至对现金征税。   日本央行最近也加入了实施负利率的央行之列,瑞典央行周四进一步下调负利率,同时市场推测欧洲央行(ECB)下月将把目前负0.3%的存款利率再下调10或20个基点。   随着一些经济学家谈论再度发生全球性衰退的可能性,就连去年12月刚刚进行10年来首次升息的美国联邦储备委员会(美联储 FED),也在研究负利率前景。   “在日本央行决定降息至负利率后,银行业出现压力并非是巧合,”Rabobank利率策略主管Richard McGuire表示。“这是反应过度。”   本周的跌势使得长久以来公认的负利率缺点备受关注。欧洲银行股已跌至数年新低,而次顺位(次级)银行债的保险成本今年已提高逾80%ITEFS5Y=。   负利率实际上等于向银行存在央行的资金收取费用,但这些成本难以转嫁出去,因为客户可以将他们的资金从帐户中提领走,银行的资产负债表上将徒留大窟窿。   **另类思考**   各国央行可以藉由限制负利率的适用范围来减轻这些打击。举例来说,日本央行正采用不同层级的利率,欧洲央行也讨论过类似的举措。   不过,欧洲央行不太可能实施这类作法。这类修修补补可能让原来希望经济改善的效果减弱,但由于银行业对负利率头庝,正在寻求另类办法。   欧洲央行决策者曾讨论过,把银行与企业债券,或者风险较高的资产支持证券(ABS),纳入其1.5万亿欧元(1.7万亿美元)债券购买计划。而欧洲央行首席经济学家普雷特甚至提到,股票或黄金也是理论上的选项。   其中多数措施不太容易实施,因为欧洲央行需要在19个成员国全面推行,但也并非完全不可能。一两年前,人们谈论购买政府公债和负利率的时候,实际上也是把它们当作非常另类的东西。   “没有刻意排除任何手段,”Pictet Wealth Management的欧洲经济学家Frederik Ducrozet表示。   而且还有先例。在1990年代末的亚洲金融危机期间,香港金管局购买了大约20%的本地上市蓝筹股;日本央行最近在购买股票上市交易基金(ETF)。   经济学家与学者为欧洲央行提出的其他建议包括一种贷款计划,实际上是向银行付费鼓励其提取现金;或者干预与通胀挂钩的衍生品,这会提高市场对消费物价上涨的预期。   **迟钝的工具**   如果更低的负利率使得银行需要为存款支付更多的利息,则在低到一定程度时,银行就会把存款提出来自己保管。   即使在零利率环境下并需支付保安费用,银行这么做仍能获得更好的回报。有些学者去年讨论过对实物现金征税或者消除实物现金,但那样的话只会加剧银行业的压力。   然而,尽管最近市场对于负利率会对金融体系造成的影响感到不安,但至少目前来看,负利率是央行的首选武器。   摩根大通本周表示,欧洲央行可能在年中之前把存款利率降到负0.7%,更长远来看,理论上至少可以降到负4.5%。[nL3S15Q053]   如果这还不能让你晕头转向的话,摩根大通还说去年末刚刚升息的美联储原则上可以将利率降至负1.3%,英国降至负2.5%,日本可降至负3.45%。   “就好比一个工具箱,”安本资产管理的泛欧洲固定收益主管Neil Murray表示。   “如果你实际需要的是电钻,但你从未听说过电钻,而且手里只有锤子,那么你就可能不停地用锤子敲。”(完)   (编译 张涛 戴素萍;审校 王丽鑫 许娜 张荻) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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