NPC and CPPCC time window to hide the risk and then choose the hot-pppd-175

"NPC and CPPCC" time window to hide the risk and then choose the hot Sina Level2:A shares of sina finance: App speed Kanpan live on-line blogger to tutor "NPC and CPPCC" time window to hide the risk and then choose the hot "red week" contributing author name of jade market this week is the emotional investment mode, whether retail or institutional investors so, rise too far, too far down. Monday because the Commission Huanshuai, led the market’s expectations, opening to go, the market generally change the strong and the weak, the market is looking forward to look forward to, the higher the value, the rebound is stronger, on Monday revealed the market full of expectations. Tuesday the market opened low, closing up, reveal the weakness; the Wednesday market has appeared emotional characteristics, early after the plunge, and the late heavyweight support the market will pull up the index hit a record high, but there is a detail worth noting, the strongest two hot plate and the concept of virtual reality transfer appeared limit, the withdrawal of funds was adamant. The way down the market opened Thursday, after midday is even more sharply, the market appeared thousand shares once again limit. On Friday, it’s a long, narrow patch, which brings suspense for next week’s market. Market encounter important nodes "two sessions" will be held in March 3rd. For the A share market, the "two sessions" is an important time node. At the beginning of the year, the institutional investors who have been "killed" or will use this round of rebound to launch the annual configuration structure and position structure adjustment, combined with the "two sessions" before and after the stability needs, this round "no width, no height" tortuous rebound into a direction selection period. In the past, the "two sessions" market has two major experiences, one is the "two sessions" before the market, "two sessions" during the adjustment, "two sessions" will continue after the second wave. The current market is warming up and expand, will continue to rise during the meeting, NPC and CPPCC "before the adjustment, after speculation themes" striking one snag after another "mode. Now the situation is similar, February 25th A shares reproduction thousand shares limit the trend, more interesting is that the market is a copy of that wave fell last year, in 2638 the same day, the index rebounded to regain the road in November 27th last year, Zhang Yin, and higher part, then sideways for 3 days, and then diving. Then sideways 3 days, is the new diving. It’s almost replicated today. "Two sessions" market trend of the past two sessions, the market seems simple, but there is a special trend law. Data statistics show that in the past 16 years, the "two sessions" before the convening of a month, A shares probably rise. The Shanghai Composite Index in the "NPC and CPPCC" held one month before the 14 rally, rose as high as 87.5% probability; Shenzhen Component Index rose 13, up 81.25% probability. In 2000, the "NPC and CPPCC" one month before the A shares rose the most, up 13.23% monthly Shanghai, Shenzhen Component Index rose 13.56%. During the two sessions, A shares were mixed. In the past 18 years, the 8 decline, the 10 rise, did not show obvious ups and downs characteristics. From the average monthly rise and fall, the Shanghai and Shenzhen two cities in the "two sessions" during the average decline amplitude theory

“两会”时间窗口 先躲风险再择热点 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经App:直播上线 博主一对一指导   “两会”时间窗口 先躲风险再择热点   《红周刊》特约作者玉名   本周行情是情绪化的投资模式,无论散户还是机构投资者均如此,涨过头,跌过头。周一因为证监会换帅,引发了市场的期待,高开高走,一般来说换帅行情的强与弱,就在于市场的期待,期待值越高,反弹也就越强,周一显露了市场满满的期待。周二市场低开低走,尾盘拉起,显露出疲态;周三市场已经出现了明显的情绪化特征,早盘冲高后大幅跳水,而尾盘又利用权重股护盘将指数拉起创了新高,不过有个细节值得注意,前期最强的两大热点板块虚拟现实概念和高送转都出现了跌停,资金撤离态度坚决。周四市场低开后一路下行,午盘后更是大幅跳水,市场出现了又一次的千股跌停。周五则呈现惯有的长阴后窄幅整理,为下周行情带来悬念。   行情遭遇重要节点   “两会”将于3月3日开始召开。对于A股市场,“两会”是一个重要时间节点。年初被熔断“闷杀”的机构投资者或会利用此轮反弹展开年度性的配置结构和持仓结构调整,结合“两会”前后的维稳需要,此轮“有宽度、没高度”的曲折型反弹进入到一个方向选择期。以往“两会”行情有两大经验,一是在“两会”前有行情,“两会”期间调整,“两会”后会有延续性的第二波。目前行情正在预热并展开,仍将延续“两会”前涨、会议期间调整、会后炒题材的“一波三折”模式。   如今的行情也是类似,2月25日A股再现千股跌停的走势,更为有意思的是,市场正在复制去年那一波下跌,在2638点出现的当天,指数一路反弹收复了去年11月27日长阴,并且高出了一部分,随后横盘3天,然后跳水,然后横盘3天,又是新的跳水。如今几乎复制了这样的走势。   历年“两会”行情走势情况   “两会”行情看似简单,却有特殊的走势规律。数据统计显示,近16年来,“两会”召开前一个月A股大概率出现上涨。上证综指在“两会”召开前一个月有14次出现上涨行情,上涨概率高达87.5%;深证成指上涨13次,上涨概率为81.25%。其中2000年的“两会”前一个月A股涨幅最大,上证综指单月上涨13.23%,深证成指上涨13.56%。   在“两会”召开期间,A股涨跌参半。近18年来,8次下跌,10次上涨,未呈现出明显的涨跌特征。从平均单月涨跌幅看,沪深两市在“两会”期间平均下跌幅度分别为0.97%、1.16%。其中,2008年的““两会””期间跌幅最深,上证综指累计下跌15.63%,深证成指下跌21%。“两会”开完后,A股上涨的概率大幅回升。历史数据显示,近18年来,“两会”后一周反弹有13次,5次下跌,但很有意思的是在2004年前“两会”后都是反弹的,但最近11年则有5次下跌,6次上涨,再次显露了分歧。   综合来看,笔者认为“两会”前维稳成为主要的基调,而临近会议和会议期间则进入调整周期,会议后则因为会议期间传递消息的情况而涨跌参半,变得复杂起来,所以“两会”前是相对安全的操作周期,而随着会议进行,维稳因素渐渐减弱,会后则需要更谨慎一些。   “两会”热点分析   同样,热点规律也有特殊的规律,近16年来,在“两会”召开前一个月内,所有行业月平均收益均为正值,上涨概率也均超过50%。综合、农林牧渔、汽车、建筑材料行业表现最为抢眼,“两会”前一个月累计涨幅均值超过了8%,值得一提的是,农林牧渔、汽车两大板块期间的上涨概率竟高达93.75%。相比之下,银行、非银金融、采掘等权重板块“两会”前上涨的概率偏低。   在“两会”召开期间,行业普遍表现低迷,过去16年,在“两会”召开期间,惟独休闲服务行业累计涨幅均值为正,其他行业平均收益均为负值。在“两会”召开完后的一个月,各大行业上涨的概率均显著较高,尤其是房地产和建筑装饰板块,在“两会”开完后出现上涨的概率较大。这主要与政策刺激息息相关。而且近期楼市刺激政策连续出现,从央行降贷、减税等都在加速消耗楼市库存。因此,今年“两会”之后可关注房地产板块。   还有一条主线是国企改革股。近期,央企“十项试点”改革试点工作逐步展开,内容涵盖集团整体上市、混合所有制等多个方面。这些因素或将成为国企改革的重要催化剂。针对板块的投资机会方面,作为首批试点的中粮系与国投系,一直是市场认可的国企改革主题投资的龙头,预计第二批央企试点尤其是国有资本投资公司和国有资本运营公司试点同样有望成为市场关注的热点。因此,招商局系、中航系等都值得关注。■ 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

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