Short of energy weakening market continued to pick upholle树先生�����

Short of energy weakening market continued to pick up the Sina Level2:A shares of sina finance client speed Kanpan: the most profitable investors are using the Zhang Deliang editor Yang Xiaokun, because the Spring Festival is closed during the global stock market plunged unexpectedly completely on the first day after the holiday, A shares were sharply lower, but the depletion force. Hot spots and themes continue before the trend, February pick up pattern unchanged. The strength of A shares is not relatively strong, but the adjustment has been very sufficient. As the Shanghai index has been pulled back to 2013 the bottom area of the platform area 100% of the back track, has been fully reflected in the market for the current macroeconomic environment cautious pessimism. In fact, during the Spring Festival, the sharp adjustment of the external market and the subsequent strong rebound, mainly due to the global economic growth prospects turn cautious, but also began in 2008 the big adjustment towards the end and full of expectations. From commodities to the exchange rate, and then to the stock market, there is a big change behind the volatility. Here’s the evolution of the global stock index only in terms of technology trends. In the short term, due to the long moving average has turned head down, the short-term trend is undoubtedly a bear market characteristics. However, there is always a degree of adjustment, there is always an inflection point. If the observation field is further enlarged, the short-term adjustment is not unfathomable, and it is close to the important technical support area. If it can be effectively supported in the near future, the possibility of a great reversal in technology can be implied. Look at the short term decline of the Nikkei 225 index. Since 1990 see long-term weak roof, nearly 20 years to maintain a large box fluctuations (generally 7000-2000 points), over the past year and a half, launched a most powerful market to attack the top box, in July last year blocked in box top 20000 points after the start to adjust, in full compliance with the operation box however, the large box features 50% position (point 13000-14000) whether the support is the key to obtain the support and effective once again upside, there is greater probability to achieve breakthrough in the big box. Last week, five touched the area (14865 points), Monday’s closing up 7.18%, laying the foundation for the medium and short term rebound. Looking at the German DAX index in European stock markets. This is the September 2013 breakthrough 13 years large finishing platform (generally 8100), really need to repeatedly confirm reversal in April last year, the highest reach 12390 points, the current adjustment can be seen as the reversal of confirmation, last week the probe to 8699 points after the beginning of a strong rebound, the trend still needs to be strengthened. Of course, the global leader in the stock market or stocks, the S & P 500 index in March 2013 exceeded 13 years finishing platform (generally 1500), in May last year hit a high of 2134 points after the shock down, but to get support in the vicinity of the new breakthroughs in 50% position rose 1800 points, finishing category is strong. In other words, whether it is Nikkei 225, or Germany DAX, S & P 500, the trend of its index fluctuation still belongs to the reasonable adjustment range, for the adjustment of the recovery rising market since 2013, and the short-term has entered the key areas. If you don’t get the basic support,

做空能量趋弱 行情持续回暖 新浪财经Level2:A股极速看盘 新浪财经客户端:最赚钱的投资者都在用   ⊙张德良 ○编辑 杨晓坤   因春节休市期间全球股市意外全面急挫,节后首日A股虽大幅低开,但做空乏力。热点与主题延续节前趋势,2月回暖格局不变。   A股的坚强并不是相对强势,而是此前调整已非常充分。像上证指数已回撤至2013年底部区域平台区域,这种100%的回辙,已充分反映市场对当前宏观经济环境谨慎悲观的预期。事实上,春节期间,外围市场的大幅调整以及随后的强力反弹,主要原因是对全球经济增长前景转向谨慎,同时,也对始于2008年的大调整趋于尾声而充满预期。从大宗商品到汇率,再到股市,剧烈波动的背后隐含的是大变局。   这里仅就技术趋势角度来观察全球股指的演变。短期看,因长期均线已全面拐头向下,短期趋势无疑呈熊市特征。不过,调整总有一个度,总有一个拐点。把观察视野进一步放大的话,短期调整并非深不可测,普遍已接近重要技术支撑区,若近期能够反复获得有效支撑,技术上隐含大逆转的可能。   先看短期跌幅最大的日经225指数。自1990年见顶后长期弱势,近20年维持于一个超大型箱体波动(大体为7000-2000点),过去一年半时间里,展开了一轮最具力度的向箱顶攻击的行情,去年7月受阻于箱顶20000点后展开调整,完全符合箱体运行特征,不过,大型箱体50%位置(13000-14000点)是否获得支撑很关键,一旦有效获得支撑并再次上攻,就有较大概率实现大箱体的突破。上周五触及此区域(14865点),周一收盘涨7.18%,为中短期回暖奠定基础。   再看欧洲股市的德国DAX指数。这是2013年9月突破13年大型整理平台(大体为8100点),是否真正反转需要反复确认,去年4月最高触及12390点,当前调整可看作为这次反转行情的回抽确认,上周探至8699点后开始强劲反弹,趋势仍需加强。当然,全球股市的领先者还是美股,标普500指数率先于2013年3月突破13年整理平台(大体为1500点),去年5月触及2134点高位后震荡下行,但在突破新高后涨幅50%位置1800点附近获得支持,属强势整理范畴。   换言之,无论是日经225,还是德国DAX、标普500,其指数波动的大趋势依然属于合理调整的范围,为针对于2013年以来恢复性上涨行情的一次调整,且短期已步入关键区域。若得不到基本面支持,调整级别也会进一步升级。从宏观经济增长框架看,中短期内可排除出现系统性雪崩,主动管理下的汇率剧烈波动也难于出现系统性危机,而黄金、大宗商品、有色金属,也经历8年调整,调整幅度甚至达70-80%的时候,迎来了我国的供给侧结构性改革,对钢铁、煤炭行业主动化解过剩产能,新兴经济体新一轮投资也在提速,就A股而言,2015年煤炭钢铁股已出现大面积巨额亏损,此时的股价调整极易形成底部极端区域,其中,黄金、锌、锗以及维生素、钛白粉等已率先启动。   与2007年之前不同的是,当前新产业浪潮已在全球内形成,从新能源汽车到大数据、人工智能,再到精准医疗、无人驾驶,产业化浪潮势不可挡。像引力波的发现,就是对100年前理论假设的证实。种种迹象表明,新一轮技术革命已形成,有产业突破支持的股市,都会有一轮超级大行情。今年A股新产业投资主题,会从概念层(0到1)整体转向产业化、商业化转移(1到N),更强调新蓝筹、新产业龙头的综合竞争优势,像中大市值的科大讯飞、万达信息、七喜控股、紫光股份等已成为影响投资者情绪最大的群体。(执业证书:S1450611020014)THE_END 新浪声明:此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体,新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的,并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章:

« »

Comments closed.